IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Wichita St.
American Athletic
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	+9.1	#58
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	69.5	#156
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+3.6	#78

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+5.5	#39

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.7%	0.7%	0.1%
Top 2 Seed	2.0%	2.2%	0.1%
Top 4 Seed	6.2%	6.7%	0.9%
Top 6 Seed	12.0%	12.9%	2.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	43.2%	45.3%	22.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	36.7%	38.6%	18.9%
Average Seed	8.1	8.1	9.4

.500 or above	83.6%	85.6%	62.0%
.500 or above in Conference	68.7%	70.4%	51.3%
Conference Champion	11.0%	11.6%	4.4%
Last Place in Conference	1.7%	1.4%	4.7%

First Four	6.9%	7.0%	5.9%
First Round	39.6%	41.7%	18.7%
Second Round	21.4%	22.8%	7.4%
Sweet Sixteen	8.1%	8.7%	2.2%
Elite Eight	3.1%	3.3%	0.6%
Final Four	1.1%	1.2%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%
National Champion	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Next Game: Nebraska Omaha (Home) - 91.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 3	1 - 3
Quad 1b	2 - 3	3 - 6
Quad 2	5 - 4	7 - 10
Quad 3	5 - 2	13 - 11
Quad 4	8 - 0	20 - 12

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2019	195	Nebraska Omaha	W	81-67	91%
Nov 09, 2019	265	Texas Southern	W	90-72	96%
Nov 16, 2019	258	Tennessee Martin	W	83-66	94%
Nov 19, 2019	176	Gardner-Webb	W	78-65	88%
Nov 23, 2019	205	Oral Roberts	W	81-66	90%
Nov 26, 2019	78	South Carolina	W	74-72	59%
Dec 05, 2019	284	Central Arkansas	W	85-66	95%
Dec 08, 2019	49	@ Oklahoma St.	L	68-72	37%
Dec 14, 2019	38	Oklahoma	W	73-72	54%
Dec 21, 2019	28	Virginia Commonwealth	L	69-70	50%
Dec 29, 2019	286	Abilene Christian	W	76-57	95%
Jan 01, 2020	203	East Carolina	W	79-64	89%
Jan 04, 2020	51	Mississippi	W	74-72	58%
Jan 09, 2020	26	Memphis	L	79-80	49%
Jan 12, 2020	73	@ Connecticut	L	73-74	46%
Jan 15, 2020	83	@ Temple	L	72-73	49%
Jan 18, 2020	32	Houston	W	69-68	51%
Jan 21, 2020	79	@ South Florida	L	69-70	47%
Jan 25, 2020	94	Central Florida	W	71-63	73%
Feb 01, 2020	100	@ Tulsa	W	72-70	56%
Feb 06, 2020	29	Cincinnati	L	65-66	49%
Feb 09, 2020	32	@ Houston	L	65-71	31%
Feb 13, 2020	94	@ Central Florida	W	68-66	55%
Feb 16, 2020	242	Tulane	W	82-65	91%
Feb 20, 2020	79	South Florida	W	72-67	67%
Feb 23, 2020	29	@ Cincinnati	L	63-69	31%
Feb 27, 2020	83	Temple	W	75-69	68%
Mar 01, 2020	89	@ SMU	W	69-68	52%
Mar 05, 2020	26	@ Memphis	L	77-83	30%
Mar 08, 2020	100	Tulsa	W	75-67	73%
Projected Record						19 - 11	10 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st													0.2	1.2	2.7	3.4	2.2	1.0	0.3		11.0	1st
2nd											0.0	0.4	2.4	4.0	3.3	1.1	0.1	0.0			11.4	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.4	2.6	5.1	3.2	0.4	0.0					11.8	3rd
4th										0.3	2.7	5.4	2.8	0.4	0.0						11.6	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.9	4.9	2.9	0.4	0.0							10.3	5th
6th							0.0	0.1	1.8	4.6	3.3	0.4	0.0								10.3	6th
7th							0.1	1.4	4.1	3.2	0.5	0.0									9.4	7th
8th					0.0	0.1	1.1	3.4	2.9	0.6	0.0										8.1	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.9	2.6	2.6	0.6	0.0											7.0	9th
10th			0.0	0.1	1.0	2.1	1.7	0.5	0.0												5.5	10th
11th		0.0	0.2	0.5	0.9	0.9	0.2	0.0													2.7	11th
12th	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.1															0.9	12th

Total	0.0	0.2	0.5	1.0	2.1	4.1	5.7	8.1	9.6	10.7	11.9	11.7	11.0	8.8	6.4	4.5	2.3	1.0	0.3			Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.3		0.3
17-1	99.9%	1.0		1.0	0.0
16-2	95.5%	2.2		1.9	0.4
15-3	74.2%	3.4		2.3	1.0	0.1	0.0
14-4	42.3%	2.7		1.1	1.2	0.4	0.0
13-5	13.7%	1.2		0.2	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0
12-6	1.9%	0.2		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	11.0%	11.0		6.7	3.2	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.3%		100.0%	62.7%	37.3%	1.6		0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0														100.0%
17-1	1.0%		100.0%	49.2%	50.8%	2.5		0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0											100.0%
16-2	2.3%		100.0%	39.9%	60.1%	3.7		0.2	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0								100.0%
15-3	4.5%		99.2%	31.8%	67.4%	5.1		0.1	0.4	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0					0.0		98.8%
14-4	6.4%		96.8%	25.3%	71.5%	6.7		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.1	1.0	0.8	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.0					0.2		95.7%
13-5	8.8%		88.5%	18.4%	70.1%	8.2			0.0	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.7	1.1	1.4	1.6	1.2	0.9	0.1	0.0				1.0		85.9%
12-6	11.0%		75.2%	14.4%	60.8%	9.3				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	1.1	1.7	1.9	1.7	0.6	0.0				2.7		71.0%
11-7	11.7%		54.8%	9.4%	45.4%	10.1						0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	1.2	1.5	2.0	0.8	0.0				5.3		50.1%
10-8	11.9%		32.6%	5.6%	27.1%	10.6						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.9	1.6	0.7	0.0				8.0		28.7%
9-9	10.7%		16.0%	2.7%	13.3%	10.9						0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.8	0.4	0.0	0.0			9.0		13.7%
8-10	9.6%		5.4%	2.0%	3.4%	11.3								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0		9.1		3.5%
7-11	8.1%		2.0%	1.1%	0.9%	11.9										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		8.0		0.9%
6-12	5.7%		1.0%	0.9%	0.1%	12.8												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		5.6		0.1%
5-13	4.1%		0.6%	0.6%		12.7												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		4.0
4-14	2.1%		0.4%	0.4%		13.9														0.0	0.0			2.1
3-15	1.0%		0.0%	0.0%		13.0														0.0				1.0
2-16	0.5%																							0.5
1-17	0.2%																							0.2
0-18	0.0%																							0.0

Total	100%		43.2%	10.3%	32.9%	8.1		0.7	1.3	1.8	2.4	2.7	3.1	3.8	4.3	5.9	6.4	7.6	3.0	0.2	0.0	0.0		56.8		36.7%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	1.3	68.3	31.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	1.0	95.8	4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	2.3	9.4	46.9	43.8